On June 20, the PDPC organized the third and final session in a series of three simulation exercises. These exercises simulated the outbreak of a hypothetical virus with pandemic potential (‘Disease X’). The simulations are part of the PDPC research theme Integrated Science for Policy, which focuses on developing integrated advisory methods to improve crisis response.

Following the simulation exercises held in 2023 and 2024, the PDPC developed a new series of simulations in 2025 aimed at exploring scientific advisory processes that combine biomedical, social, and economic perspectives. A key innovation in this round was the involvement not only of scientific experts but also policy professionals. This expansion enabled the exercises to better align scientific advice with policy questions.

The simulation exercises covered different phases of a pandemic timeline: from early warning signals in the alert phase (April 16, 2025), through acute spread (May 21, 2025), to the transition into a post-crisis phase (June 20, 2025). The fictional scenario centered on a new variant of a filovirus (Ebola), which started with small outbreaks in the Netherlands and evolved into a global pandemic. Unlike previous pandemics such as COVID-19 and Avian Influenza, this virus is not transmitted through the air but through the bodily fluids of infected individuals. As a result, the exercise required different control measures than those used during the COVID-19 and Avian Influenza outbreaks.

The exercises provided space for a diverse group of professionals to focus on a range of topics, including virus transmission, hospital capacity, vaccinations, collective measures, group stigmatization, the role of communication in building public trust in science, and making explicit the societal values that often implicitly influence scientific advice. By incorporating these aspects, the exercises contributed to improving integrated advisory practices and highlighted the interplay of biomedical, social, and economic considerations.

Simulating pandemic scenarios and developing an integrated decision-making framework are crucial steps in strengthening the Netherlands’ preparedness and resilience. Recently, ZonMw awarded a €2 million grant to the UNITY project, led by Dr. Anja Schreijer – Medical Director of the PDPC – which will further build on the knowledge and skills developed through these exercises.

Want to learn more about the research theme Integrated Science for Policy? Click here for more information.