“School closures? Never again…”, or so it was said. But what if it becomes necessary once more? Then it’s best to be prepared.

In the PRESENT project, the Pandemic & Disaster Preparedness Center (PDPC), together with Erasmus MC, the Erasmus School of Social and Behavioural Sciences (ESSB), UMC Utrecht, SEO Economic Research and Nivel, is researching the short- and medium-term effects of school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. The PRESENT project was launched in November 2024, and the first meeting was held in January 2025. During the second meeting with the advisory group of the PRESENT consortium on 27 May 2025, researchers from PDPC (work package 4) and Nivel & EUR (work package 2) presented their first results.

Representatives from the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW), the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport (VWS), the secondary school council (VO-raad), the Municipal Health Service (GGD), youth doctors (AJN Jeugdartsen), the education union (CNV), and the National Student Action Committee (LAKS) attended this second meeting.

Results from Work Package 4: Insights from (former) students, parents and teachers

In recent months, PDPC researchers conducted interviews with (former) students, parents and teachers to provide a broad picture of how students experienced the school closures. The researchers heard a wide variety of stories: from students who completed their secondary education without major problems, to students who left school without a diploma and are now trying to get back on their feet with professional help. The interviews made it clear that the balance between educational and social aspects that usually exists in schools fell away during the pandemic. The focus was on delivering the curriculum, while the social aspect was almost absent in the virtual settings in which the education took place. As a society, we are now seeing the consequences of that.

The PRESENT stakeholders reflected on the results and on what they might mean for policy and practice. The discussion focused on three main topics. First, the question of what schools can do to maintain social interaction between young people and the school. It appears that all (former) students experienced online and hybrid education as less educational and reported reduced motivation. Socially, (former) students noted that they felt lonely and that the sense of group belonging was missing. Even now, (former) students and teachers observe a delay in social development among students who were in secondary school during the closures. How can schools respond better to this? Under normal circumstances, schools serve both a cognitive and social function. During the COVID-19 pandemic, school was not the only thing that disappeared—many other activities also stopped. What role could—or even should—schools play at such times in giving more attention to the social aspect? And how do we ensure that this aspect is properly taken into account when making decisions?

Secondly, both the interviews and the discussion during the meeting showed that a one-size-fits-all approach is not suitable. This is also true under normal circumstances. While school performance declined for some student groups during the closures (in the context of the overall package of measures), it improved for others. This may also apply to social wellbeing. Preliminary research shows that, in addition to measurable factors (such as low income, low educational level, and migration background), the extent to which students were able to maintain daily routines was also influential. This is related to the amount of support parents could provide, but also to the student’s own motivation and independence.

Finally, alongside attention to all kinds of creative and practical solutions for the organization of education, ideas for online education, and the role and risk for teachers, the variety of possible effects of school closures stood out. Were there perhaps subjects that were harder to teach online? Did more attention go to core subjects than to others? Did students therefore choose a different study profile, or switched levels sooner? Did they drop out earlier, and did they return later? And how did all these choices have an impact on different aspects of the lives of the students in the medium term?

Results from Work Package 2: Impact of school closures on educational and labour market outcomes

Researchers from Nivel and EUR studied the academic impact of school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic using national registry data on more than 1.4 million Dutch secondary school students. They analysed exam results from seven cohorts (2017–2023), with particular attention to differences by socioeconomic status, migration background, gender, and urban–rural differences.

The findings show that average exam performance declined during and after the pandemic, but not equally for all students. Those with less educated parents or a non-Western migration background were hit the hardest, while inequalities often persisted or widened through 2023. At the same time, the study also revealed patterns of resilience. Migrant students in more academic tracks, such as pre-university education (VWO), and students from rural areas managed to recover more strongly, in some cases turning pre-pandemic disadvantages into post-pandemic advantages. These results highlight that recovery policies should go beyond improving average outcomes. To ensure equal opportunities, they must also address the uneven and lasting effects of the pandemic across different student populations.

In addition to effects on final exam results, school closures during the pandemic also affected the transition from school to further education and/or the labour market. Researchers from Nivel and EUR focused on students from secondary education (VO) and secondary vocational education (MBO) who completed their schooling (‘school leavers’) and compared cohorts who left school during the pandemic (2020–2022) with cohorts from before the pandemic (2016–2019). They looked at both short-term outcomes (in the year of leaving school) and longer-term outcomes (one and two years after leaving school), using the School Leavers Survey (‘Schoolverlatersonderzoek’) and registry data on education and employment by the Statistics Netherlands (CBS).

Preliminary results show that young people who left school during the pandemic were more likely to obtain a basic qualification and more often had paid work immediately, compared to earlier cohorts. There were also shifts in how young people spent their time: fewer students followed only further education, while more combined work and study or chose to work only. These trends were seen among both VO and MBO students. Among VO students, it was also notable that they had more often dropped out of their follow-up study within the first year after leaving school. This might indicate that students progressed to further education before they were fully prepared. These preliminary findings raise questions about the stability of the transition to work or further education, and highlight the importance of analysing which groups of young people are vulnerable in this regard, and looking into how support during and after educational disruptions can be adjusted to better match their needs.

All in all, it was a fruitful afternoon that yielded many new insights. The questions and concerns raised during the meeting will be incorporated into the next steps of the research. The results will eventually be published in both scientific articles and a final document with policy recommendations.

Read more about the PRESENT consortium!