Pandemic-Related Secondary School Closures: Differentiated Epidemiological, Socio-Educational, and Economic Effects Across Student Subpopulations (PRESENT)

Introduction 

During a pandemic, school closures may be implemented to limit the spread of the virus. However, such closures can have profound short- and long-term effects on students, impacting their educational performance, transition to higher education and employment, and mental well-being. Moreover, school closures can result in lasting consequences for society and the economy. 

Beyond students, other key stakeholders, including parents and teachers, also experienced significant disruptions. Parents were suddenly required to take on the role of part-time educators while managing their own professional responsibilities. Meanwhile, teachers had to adapt to new methods of instruction overnight, often with minimal preparation. The COVID-19 pandemic was an unprecedented period, underscoring the need to reflect on its effects to better prepare for future crises. 

This research project builds on previously collected data and, where necessary, gathers new data to investigate: 

• If and how secondary school closures limited the spread of COVID-19; 

• The impact of school closures on students’ educational performance and their transition to higher education and employment in the short and medium term; 

• The effects of secondary school closures on students’ mental well-being in the short and medium term; 

• A comprehensive analysis of socio-economic costs of school closures. 

We pay particular attention to the characteristics and circumstances that may have exacerbated the negative effects of these measures on specific groups or individuals. In collaboration with stakeholders, we will translate our findings into policy recommendations concerning school closures and mitigation strategies. 

Understanding the diverse and differentiated impacts of school closures is essential to ensure that, in the event of a future outbreak, decision-makers can appropriately balance the health benefits of closures against their broader societal costs. 

Research Approach 

Key Challenges 

This study faces several challenges, including: 

• Isolating the effects of school closures from other pandemic-related measures, such as mandatory mask wearing and lockdowns; 

• Differentiating the impact on various student subgroups—for example, were first-year secondary school students more severely affected than third-year students? 

• Assessing the role of local circumstances—such as school infrastructure, access to supervision, and the availability of digital resources at home—in shaping the effectiveness and consequences of school closures. 

By integrating diverse datasets—including virus transmission data, educational performance metrics, mental health records from general practitioners, and labor market data—we aim to disentangle the epidemiological and socio-economic effects of school closures from those of the pandemic itself. 

Additionally, we will enrich existing data through interviews with students, teachers, and parents who were directly affected. A dedicated sounding board has been established, consisting of representatives from the Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport (VWS), the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW), the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Municipal Public Health Services (GGD), the Secondary education council (VO-raad), the Secondary Vocational Education Council (MBO- Raad), AJN Youth Doctors of the Netherlands (AJN Jeugdartsen), a Teachers’ Union (CNV), and the National Action Committee for Students (LAKS).    

Work Packages 

The research is structured into four work packages: 

Work Package 1 

Work Package (WP) 1 investigates the epidemiological effects of school closures on disease spread. This will be achieved through a systematic literature review, examining studies worldwide that estimate population-level changes in SARS-Cov-2 and Influenza virus transmission rates following secondary school closures and re-openings. The review will detail the methods used for these estimations. In addition to a systematic literature review, SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates within schools will be analyzed over time. A method based on clustering of cases will be developed to help distinguish transmission likely to be school-related from broader transmission driven by general pandemic dynamics. This spatial and longitudinal analysis will provide a detailed understanding of transmission rates within schools during different phases of the pandemic, how transmission rates were impacted by school closures, and how transmission rates are influenced by various school characteristics (e.g. school population size, type of ventilation). 

Work Package 2 

This package examines the medium-term effects of school closures on students’ academic performance, transitions to higher education and employment, and mental well-being. The impact will be assessed by comparing the COVID cohort with pre-pandemic cohorts, identifying which student subgroups were adversely affected. A longitudinal perspective will help determine whether negative consequences diminished over time (bounce-back effect). 

Work Package 3  

WP 3 examines the economic impact of secondary school closures (2020–2022), focusing on differences across student groups and long-term effects on GDP. 

Building on WP 2, the analysis measures economic costs in two ways. First, at the individual level, it assesses how learning losses—temporary or permanent—affect future earnings and human capital. These impacts are then aggregated to highlight disparities among student groups. Second, the study quantifies the national income loss, providing a clear estimate of the broader economic toll. These findings can guide policymakers in determining the extent of remedial measures needed to mitigate long-term consequences for students and families. 

Work Package 4  

This package ensures close collaboration with stakeholders through the sounding board, integrating their questions and experiences into the research framework where feasible. Additionally, it synthesizes insights from the previous work packages to develop considerations for policy makers, and future generations. 

Ethics, Privacy and Data Protection 

The Medical Ethics Review Committee of the Erasmus MC has approved this research to be executed at Erasmus MC. Furthermore, they concluded that this research does not fall under the law called  “Medical Research Involving Human Subjects Act” (WMO) (METC number: MEC-2024-0669). 

All research activities comply with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).  

Expected Outcomes 

This research aims to answer the following overarching research question: 

What were the differentiated short- and medium-term effects of secondary school closures in the Netherlands during the COVID-19 pandemic on disease spread, educational performance, employment, mental well-being, and macroeconomic outcomes? And which student groups were most vulnerable to the negative effects of these closures? 

Additionally, if possible, we seek to address: 

Which mitigation measures were implemented to counteract the negative effects of school closures, and how effective were they? 

Research team 

Erasmus MC/ PDPC: 

Anja Schreijer (Main applicant) 

Tomris Cesuroglu 

Loïs van Eck 

Tim Florschütz 

Erasmus University Rotterdam: 

Tom Emery 

Hekmat Alrouh 

UMC Utrecht: 

Patricia Bruijning 

Clarize de Korne 

SEO Economisch Onderzoek: 

Bas ter Weel 

Henri Bussink 

Tyas Prevoo 

Nivel 

Mark Bosmans 

Julie Penders 

Contact person: Linda Jansen (e.g.j.jansen@erasmusmc.nl)