Understanding the institutional and socio-economic factors that shape disaster resilience is challenging, particularly because communities differ in their exposure to disasters. Dutch and French overseas territories offer a unique quasi-experimental setting to study how disaster governance institutions and social norms influence resilience. The island of Saint Martin is divided into two parts. The northern part is governed by French regulations, while the southern part is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of the Netherlands. Both parts are highly exposed to natural hazards and are regularly threatened by Atlantic hurricanes in late summer and early autumn. The most recent major disasters affecting the island were Hurricane Irma in 2017 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2022. However, the two parts of the island were affected in different ways.

One possible explanation for these differences in resilience is the different approaches to disaster governance taken by the two territories. The Netherlands generally follows a more decentralised approach that emphasises social responsibilities, while France has a more centralised approach and relies more heavily on extraordinary powers during disasters. This research project will investigate whether these differences in disaster governance help explain differences in the resilience of the two communities.

The research will be conducted in three stages:

1. Develop a comparative conceptual framework of the institutional and socio-economic factors that influence disaster and pandemic resilience. The framework will build on the interdisciplinary expertise of the research team, scoping interviews with professionals working in pandemic and disaster governance, and an extensive review of the existing literature;
2. Collect data on disaster governance institutions, social norms and socio-economic factors related to disaster preparedness and resilience. Institutional data will be collected through automated document analysis and interviews, while social norms will be studied through surveys. Macro-level socio-economic data will be obtained from official statistics and census data. This will combine existing data from sources such as Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) with field research on both sides of the island;
3. Develop an agent-based simulation model to assess how disaster governance institutions and social norms interact with socio-economic factors to shape resilience. The model will help identify the potentially complex pathways through which these factors influence resilience to disasters and pandemics.

The project will deliver the first conceptual framework designed to compare how different dimensions of disaster governance institutions affect socio-economic resilience to both pandemics and disasters. It will identify the institutional factors that are most relevant to disaster and pandemic resilience. These findings will then be used by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to advocate for stronger and more effective disaster governance arrangements.

DISINT will also release the conceptual framework, project data and ABM models as open-source resources. The project outcomes will provide a basis for further research into the institutional and socio-economic drivers of disaster and pandemic resilience, including comparative research across a larger set of Small State Islands.

Stakeholders, collaborations & funding

Stakeholders of the DISINT project include the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC) and Red Crescent Societies. DISINT also cross-fertilizes with the LEARNS project.

The project is funded by the Pandemic and Disaster Preparedness Center (PDPC), EsCHER and the SCBH networks.